PREDICTION MARKETS API

The ClaudeWar Prediction Markets API is a read-only feed for approved prediction-market terminals and research platforms. It returns ClaudeWar Signals that are active, unresolved, causally validated, and admitted through publication gates that require measurable forecast edge.

The API provides finished Signals, not the ClaudeWar curation engine. Research Watchlist entries, rejected candidates, raw wallet access, order routing, and custody are outside this product.

Base URL: https://markets.claudewar.info

Method and path: GET /api/v1/signals

Use this endpoint from your backend. The service does not publish browser CORS permission for credentialed cross-origin calls.

Send the issued key in either supported header:

Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY

or

x-api-key: YOUR_API_KEY

• Store the key in a server-side secret manager or protected environment variable.
• Never expose it in browser JavaScript, mobile bundles, public repositories, screenshots, URLs, or client-visible environment variables.
• Contact ClaudeWar immediately if a key is exposed so it can be revoked or rotated.

GET /api/v1/signals
GET /api/v1/signals?source=all
GET /api/v1/signals?source=polymarket
GET /api/v1/signals?source=kalshi

There is no pagination, cursor, offset, or published global sort. With source=all, the response contains the Polymarket list followed by the Kalshi list. Each source is deduplicated by normalized question and ranked by volume with recency as the tie-breaker.

Poll the feed and replace your local active-signal snapshot after each successful response. Do not permanently merge old rows into the current feed.

A market absent from a later successful response may have resolved, expired, become inactive, failed a publication or causal gate, been classified as irrelevant, or become unavailable for live quoting.

A returned row may carry live_price_stale=true. Staleness is explicit response metadata and does not by itself guarantee that the row is removed.

curl "https://markets.claudewar.info/api/v1/signals?source=all" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $CWM_PREDICTION_API_KEY"

The sanitized response below is representative. Optional fields can be omitted, and nullable fields may contain null.

{
  "data": [
    {
      "question": "Will the specified event occur by the market deadline?",
      "slug": "sanitized-market",
      "source": "polymarket",
      "kalshi_ticker": null,
      "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/sanitized-market",
      "yes_price": 0.54,
      "no_price": 0.46,
      "volume_24h": 125000,
      "end_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "claudewar_signal_reason": "Current evidence supports the directional call.",
      "cw_call": "YES",
      "cw_confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "cw_reasoning": "Sanitized causal rationale.",
      "forecast_probability": 0.61,
      "market_probability": 0.54,
      "forecast_edge": 0.07,
      "causal_validation_status": "PASSED",
      "causal_validation_reason": "passed",
      "eligibility_status": "SIGNAL",
      "active": true,
      "live_yes_price": 0.54,
      "live_no_price": 0.46,
      "live_price_updated_at": "2026-08-04T21:20:00.000Z",
      "live_price_age_ms": 45000,
      "live_price_stale": false,
      "live_price_source": "gamma",
      "evidence_refs": [
        {
          "evidence_id": "ev_sanitized",
          "excerpt": "Sanitized evidence excerpt.",
          "source_system": "claudewar",
          "event_type": "current_event",
          "event_time": "2026-08-04T20:45:00.000Z",
          "region": "sanitized",
          "role": "direct",
          "reliability": "high",
          "limited_coverage": false
        }
      ],
      "forecast_version_id": "sfv_sanitized",
      "revision_history": []
    }
  ],
  "meta": {
    "product": "signals_only",
    "source": "all",
    "count": 1,
    "generated_at": "2026-08-04T21:20:45.000Z"
  }
}

Envelope

Signal identity and market state

ClaudeWar forecast and validation

Quote, revision, and lineage fields

Evidence reference

Each evidence object may include evidence_id, excerpt, source_system, event_type, event_time, region, role, reliability, and limited_coverage. Consumers should tolerate optional fields and additional future fields.

The endpoint does not return generic signal created_at or updated_at fields, forecast issuance time, resolution time, or settlement time.

• 30 requests per fixed 60-second window per computed client IP
• Authentication failures do not consume this limiter; invalid source requests do
• A 429 response includes Retry-After; successful responses do not publish remaining or reset headers
• No published SLA, sandbox, webhook delivery, or pagination

Use a conservative polling interval, cache the successful snapshot in your backend, and apply bounded retry behavior.

• No order routing or automatic trading
• No custody, funds, or wallet permissions
• No Research Watchlist or rejected candidates
• No self-service key provisioning
• No guarantee of market-beating returns or personalized investment advice

Consumers remain responsible for their own product disclosures, venue terms, jurisdictional requirements, and decisions about how Signals are presented.